*HURRICANE IKE AFTERMATH AND COMMENTS*

[KFDM COOP]

That's not from Ike. Pressure falls in the afternoon alot.

[GUNHO]

Somebody get me another drink!! I thought we were home free this morning. > My wife said she is packing the car until someone makes up their mind. :-\

Quit being a wuss.  Demand that she put all that cr#p back in the house and bring you another beer.          ;D

Better yet.YOU COME TELL HER. ;D

[NDN X]

That's not from Ike. Pressure falls in the afternoon alot.

thanks...

[grizzly62]

Will we be told to evacuate and when (just your best educated guess)?

Still worried about getting elderly out of here BEFORE the rush!

Southeast Texas will decided between 7pm tonite and 2am in the Morin if we will evacuate Southeast Texas. They are watching it close now that its looking like its headed up closer to us....just watch your local news and radio to find out when to evacuate if we do special needs will be first which will start in the Morin and than the rest will be Thursday....As soon i i hear something i will post again we have several meetings through out the nite so ill let yall know ??? ???

[hockeyfan]

000

WTNT34 KNHC 092043

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER  35

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL092008

500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

...IKE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF

MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE

ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM

OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED JUST

OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.9

NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...WEST-

SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

NOW THAT IKE HAS EMERGED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS

EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF

OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175

MILES...280 KM.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN

COASTS OF CUBA.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST

OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE

DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES

OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP

TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-

THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE

FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA

KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N...83.8 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75

MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

[KFDM COOP]

Hurricane Center shifted their track a touch north. Their tracks will be Slowly coming up the Coast again tomorrow.

[LUFAN]

Coop, so really how close is this storm going to come. They are making it impossible to make any plans. They are going to have the entire texas coast evacuating. That is ridiculous

[KFDM COOP]

To close!

[KFDM COOP]

[KFDM COOP]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE

FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO

A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF

MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE

LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING

LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING

THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND

ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT

ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/2100Z 22.9N  83.8W    65 KT

12HR VT    10/0600Z 23.5N  85.1W    70 KT

24HR VT    10/1800Z 24.3N  86.6W    90 KT

36HR VT    11/0600Z 24.9N  88.4W  100 KT

48HR VT    11/1800Z 25.3N  90.6W  105 KT

72HR VT    12/1800Z 26.5N  95.0W  100 KT

96HR VT    13/1800Z 29.5N  98.0W    60 KT...INLAND

120HR VT    14/1800Z 33.6N  98.0W    30 KT...INLAND

[VHS95]

It cant be good that is slowing down either, right?

[KFDM COOP]

Nope. This is going to be close and it's a huge storm!

[the_fanatic]

Thank you so much Grizzly62.  My dad never recovered from the Rita evacuation (we eventually lost him).  These evacuations are so hard on them.    

I will continue to read and listen as you advised.  

Thanks again.

[hockeyfan]

Here's a new animation of the projected path:

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

That link is a permalink, so I will re-upload the new graphics to that same URL.

[TXsTorn8do]

Hey Coop......what's your best guess as to where landfall is going to be at this time???  I know it would only be a best guess.....I know it's gonna be close.....

Also, depending on the guess and strength....let's say for arguements sake it's a stong Cat 2 or 3...what kind of storm surge and winds could we expect here in the Golden Triangle?

[82 5A State Champs]

This looks eerily similar to the track Rita took in 05!

[TXsTorn8do]

Yep...you're right!  > > >

[PURPLE 4EVER]

Nope. This is going to be close and it's a huge storm!

The cloud mass would almost fill up the gulf if the hurricane were in the center of the gulf.

Right now huricane force winds extend out around 100 miles from the center.

That is a pretty large area.

[KFDM COOP]

Hey Coop......what's your best guess as to where landfall is going to be at this time???  I know it would only be a best guess.....I know it's gonna be close.....

Also, depending on the guess and strength....let's say for arguements sake it's a stong Cat 2 or 3...what kind of storm surge and winds could we expect here in the Golden Triangle?

Freeport as a Cat 3. We would see 70-90 winds here with rain. The size of the storm is huge!

[KFDM COOP]

Nope. This is going to be close and it's a huge storm!

The cloud mass would almost fill up the gulf if the hurricane were in the center of the gulf.

Right now huricane force winds extend out around 100 miles from the center.

That is a pretty large area.

For example Miami, FL has recorded 50 mph winds today. There over 300 miles from the storm.

[grizzly62]

Thank you so much Grizzly62.  My dad never recovered from the Rita evacuation (we eventually lost him).  These evacuations are so hard on them.    

I will continue to read and listen as you advised.  

Thanks again.

Thats tuff !!! sorry for your lost .... I know how hard it is on the older folks and some young ones also we worked 2 days with no rest on the last evac to get all of these folks out of orange county then another hole day to bring them back and you could see how hard it is on everybody. And will be even harder this week for them if they decide to call a evac , Hope we dont have to go through this again but it mite be another trip to marshell again...... ill keep yall updated

[Lefty99]

Hey Coop......what's your best guess as to where landfall is going to be at this time???  I know it would only be a best guess.....I know it's gonna be close.....

Also, depending on the guess and strength....let's say for arguements sake it's a stong Cat 2 or 3...what kind of storm surge and winds could we expect here in the Golden Triangle?

Freeport as a Cat 3. We would see 70-90 winds here with rain. The size of the storm is huge!

Oh that's not good at all! >  Hope everyone is packed, because unless the high pressure does something spectacular for us,evac's will begin and we are going to be in a world of hurt!!!

[bullets13]

evacuation is going to suck.  because of what happened last week, the city is going to be hesitant to do a mandatory again unless they're pretty positive we're going to feel the storm.  i hope we don't end up in a mad rush trying to all get out of town at the same time.

[KFDM COOP]

Difference this time is we're going to be on the bad side of the Storm. This is a huge Hurricane. Winds in Florida today were 50-60 mph and they are 300+ miles away from it.

[Bobcatfan4life]

Weather channel just said that if Ike will speed up some it should stay on a westward track into the Corpus area, if it slows down it may make that northern turn