Guest baseball25 Posted September 9, 2008 Report Posted September 9, 2008 I won't trust this thing untill i see every model to the south new runs... http://flhurricane.com/sbanimator.php?year=2008&storm=9
soccermom Posted September 9, 2008 Report Posted September 9, 2008 Hey Aries - This is your Mom You must have forgotten that I frequently visit this forum. Did I read where you said you could use a break from school? > > ;)
Lefty99 Posted September 9, 2008 Report Posted September 9, 2008 Hey Aries - This is your Mom You must have forgotten that I frequently visit this forum. Did I read where you said you could use a break from school? > > ;) Uh Ohhhhh, somebody got some splainin' to do!!! ;D ;D ;D
akifan94 Posted September 9, 2008 Report Posted September 9, 2008 Hey Coop.....It looks like from the storm model animation above that once the storm developed, the UKMET was the most reliable. It trended southward before the others with them now following it. Now it looks like it is moving back north with the trough maybe picking the storm up. Do you think the UKMET is that reliable, and do you think the others will follow it again and move back north? I talked to a meteorologist friend of mine and he feels like it could go either way and we are no out of the woods yet. What do you think?
KFDM COOP Posted September 9, 2008 Author Report Posted September 9, 2008 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT IN THE CENTRAL GULF...AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN...WITH MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS. WHEN IKE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL BE IN A VERY DIFLUENT AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTRENGTHENING...AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF...WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING THERE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BASICALLY CATEGORY 2...AND THE DYNAMICAL GFDL/HWRF WHICH SHOW CAT 3/4 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN GULF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 22.6N 83.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.2W 70 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 85 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 24.7N 87.4W 95 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.2W 100 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 93.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 27.5N 97.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 14/1200Z 29.0N 99.5W 40 KT...INLAND
hockeyfan Posted September 9, 2008 Report Posted September 9, 2008 I was just about to mention that! I've been saving each track on my computer to compare. Where's that dang animation program on my computer? ???
hockeyfan Posted September 9, 2008 Report Posted September 9, 2008 Ok, I put together an animation of all the tracks (except the 2am and 5am ones, of course) since Sunday evening: This is the hidden content, please Sign In or Sign Up
Mr. Buddy Garrity Posted September 9, 2008 Report Posted September 9, 2008 I take it corpus is in some world of hurt
akifan94 Posted September 9, 2008 Report Posted September 9, 2008 Coop, it seems these tracks alway tend to shift north/right as it gets closer. Is that right, or just my imagination?
KFDM COOP Posted September 9, 2008 Author Report Posted September 9, 2008 Sometimes they do, depends on the upper air!
RonBurgundy68 Posted September 9, 2008 Report Posted September 9, 2008 Hey Aries - This is your Mom You must have forgotten that I frequently visit this forum. Did I read where you said you could use a break from school? > > ;) Yes I would like a break from school, mother... I'm only human...
KFDM COOP Posted September 9, 2008 Author Report Posted September 9, 2008 Probably so. Models are shifting North again!!!!!
NDN4Life Posted September 9, 2008 Report Posted September 9, 2008 So will we know something tonight or first thing in the morning? I'm starting to get a bad bad feeling about this !!!!
KFDM COOP Posted September 9, 2008 Author Report Posted September 9, 2008 GFS a little more North! Not good!
PURPLE 4EVER Posted September 9, 2008 Report Posted September 9, 2008 Any one hear of any information from the Galveston area on evacuating Galveston? If not... Seems to me they would need to start evacuating Wednesday evening or Thursday morning?
KFDM COOP Posted September 9, 2008 Author Report Posted September 9, 2008 Should be tomorrow, haven't heard though.
Edgar13 Posted September 9, 2008 Report Posted September 9, 2008 The www.stormpulse.com chart has it coming right between Florida and Cuba later on. great site!!!
KFDM COOP Posted September 9, 2008 Author Report Posted September 9, 2008 Look for the Hurricane Center to shift their track more North later today.
PNG70 Posted September 9, 2008 Report Posted September 9, 2008 Hey Coop will the 1pm Update reflect this Northerly turn u mentioned?
Recommended Posts