*HURRICANE IKE AFTERMATH AND COMMENTS*

[Guest baseball25]

I won't trust this thing untill i see every model to the south new runs...

http://flhurricane.com/sbanimator.php?year=2008&storm=9

[soccermom]

Hey Aries - This is your Mom

You must have forgotten that I frequently visit this forum.  Did I read where you said you could use a break from school? > > ;)

[Lefty99]

Hey Aries - This is your Mom

You must have forgotten that I frequently visit this forum.  Did I read where you said you could use a break from school? > > ;)

Uh Ohhhhh,  somebody got some splainin' to do!!! ;D ;D ;D

[Guest kosmo]

WOW! Stone cold busted. 

[akifan94]

Hey Coop.....It looks like from the storm model animation above that once the storm developed, the UKMET was the most reliable. It trended southward before the others with them now following it. Now it looks like it is moving back north with the trough maybe picking the storm up. Do you think the UKMET is that reliable, and do you think the others will follow it again and move back north? I talked to a meteorologist friend of mine and he feels like it could go either way and we are no out of the woods yet. What do you think?

[KFDM COOP]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A

WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF

MEXICO. AFTER THAT...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS

EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT IN THE CENTRAL

GULF...AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72

HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A

SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT

TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN...WITH

MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE

HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL

WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR

THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO

THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE

DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV

JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN

THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

WHEN IKE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL BE IN A VERY

DIFLUENT AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTRENGTHENING...AND IKE IS

EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.  THE PATTERN LOOKS A

LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF...WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY

SHEAR...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING

THERE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL

GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BASICALLY CATEGORY 2...AND THE DYNAMICAL

GFDL/HWRF WHICH SHOW CAT 3/4 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN GULF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/1500Z 22.6N  83.0W    70 KT

12HR VT    10/0000Z 23.2N  84.2W    70 KT

24HR VT    10/1200Z 24.0N  85.8W    85 KT

36HR VT    11/0000Z 24.7N  87.4W    95 KT

48HR VT    11/1200Z 25.2N  89.2W  100 KT

72HR VT    12/1200Z 26.0N  93.5W  100 KT

96HR VT    13/1200Z 27.5N  97.0W  100 KT

120HR VT    14/1200Z 29.0N  99.5W    40 KT...INLAND

[KFDM COOP]

SLIGHT SHIFT NORTHWARD!!

[hockeyfan]

I was just about to mention that!

I've been saving each track on my computer to compare.

Where's that dang animation program on my computer?  ???

[KFDM COOP]

[hockeyfan]

Ok, I put together an animation of all the tracks (except the 2am and 5am ones, of course) since Sunday evening:

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[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

I take it corpus is in some world of hurt

[akifan94]

Coop, it seems these tracks alway tend to shift north/right as it gets closer. Is that right, or just my imagination?

[KFDM COOP]

Sometimes they do, depends on the upper air!

[RonBurgundy68]

Hey Aries - This is your Mom

You must have forgotten that I frequently visit this forum.  Did I read where you said you could use a break from school? > > ;)

Yes I would like a break from school, mother... I'm only human...

[skipper]

will we have rain friday night

[KFDM COOP]

Probably so. Models are shifting North again!!!!!

[NDN4Life]

So will we know something tonight or first thing in the morning?  I'm starting to get a bad bad feeling about this !!!!

[KFDM COOP]

Yup

[KFDM COOP]

GFS a little more North! Not good!

[PURPLE 4EVER]

Any one hear of any information from the Galveston area on evacuating Galveston?

If not...

Seems to me they would need to start evacuating Wednesday evening or Thursday morning?

[KFDM COOP]

Should be tomorrow, haven't heard though.

[Edgar13]

The www.stormpulse.com chart has it coming right between Florida and Cuba later on.

great site!!!

[KFDM COOP]

Look for the Hurricane Center to shift their track more North later today.

[KFDM COOP]

[PNG70]

Hey Coop will the 1pm Update reflect this Northerly turn u mentioned?