*HURRICANE IKE AFTERMATH AND COMMENTS*

[Lazeek]

Any word on whether GatorFest will still go on or be cancelled?

[TNTITANS]

Lazeek-

May not matter--them gators may be coming to see you anyway!

[hockeyfan]

000

WTNT34 KNHC 100236

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER  36

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL092008

1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

...IKE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE

HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN

PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL

RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLORIDA BAY

AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE

SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IS DISCONTINUED.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO

THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...

195 KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE

IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175

MILES...280 KM.  KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45

MPH...72 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.

THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL

PRESSURE OF 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA

SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3

FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE

LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST

OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE

DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES

OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES

POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH

FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA

KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N...84.3 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80

MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500

AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

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[Lazeek]

I may have to work there this weekend and am hoping that it is cancelled so that I don't have to be out there in TS force winds serving beer!!!! ;D

[Lefty99]

I may have to work there this weekend and am hoping that it is cancelled so that I don't have to be out there in TS force winds serving beer!!!! ;D

Shoot!  Serving it?  If you are out there you might as well be having a few yourself!!! ;D

[KFDM COOP]

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AGAIN BUT THE MEAN MOTION IS NEAR

300/8.  THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

SHOULD BE THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NEAR THE

NORTHERN GULF COAST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IKE SHOULD

MAKE A TURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THERE IS

STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL BEGIN.  THE TRACK

MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION UP TO ABOUT 72 HOURS.

AFTERWARD THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND

FORWARD SPEED.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE

SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD BUT THE OVERALL DYNAMICAL MODEL

CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST

FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  AGAIN...ONE

SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL FORECAST POINT DUE TO THE

INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.

[Bobcatfan4life]

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[Lefty99]

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AGAIN BUT THE MEAN MOTION IS NEAR

300/8.  THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

SHOULD BE THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NEAR THE

NORTHERN GULF COAST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IKE SHOULD

MAKE A TURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THERE IS

STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL BEGIN.  THE TRACK

MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION UP TO ABOUT 72 HOURS.

AFTERWARD THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND

FORWARD SPEED.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE

SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD BUT THE OVERALL DYNAMICAL MODEL

CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST

FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  AGAIN...ONE

SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL FORECAST POINT DUE TO THE

INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.

Yeah, I noticed a min ago that the GFS and GFDL models had shifted a little to the south.  Hope that Ike moves faster and farther to the south before it makes the turn to the North!

[westend1]

Is it safe to assume that Galveston will be evacuated?   I have a meeting there Monday.

[KFDM COOP]

Probably.

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

hey will this thing move right over austin? > :'(

[hockeyfan]

Animation has been updated:

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Not that it tells anything new, but it does show the way the path has moved over the last two days.

[adminbaberuth]

I have rooms near Austin, if we must go, I'm going to change my plans and go to New Orleans for a change.

[venom33]

Im confused... there was such a quick call to evacuate for Gustav and we got NOTHING from it, yet, this cane has ALOT better chance of effecting us greatly and the powers that be are waiting until the last minute to make a decision.Seriously,what are they waiting for?????  I hope they keep in mind the other very LARGE counties that will be evacuating with us!

[HoopInsider_Cooper]

I can't speak for anyone on the Emergency panel but...

We are dealing with multiple BIG cities here...This will be a Rita-type evac. 1 day before and time to go so if I were you, get things ready to go because Thursday would be the day they tell you to get out.

Dang if you do, dang if you dont. I know people who left for Austin and they are leaving Austin because it could get nasty there but you won't get 100 mph winds plus I-35 will be a major evac route.

[Bulldog92]

Ike's crawling right now at 5-7 mph. It better speed up soon or you guys are gonna get a lot more of Ike than you're planning to.  >

[Guest baseball25]

yep your right i am sure its going to nudge a little more noth since its moving so slow the last 5 hours....I mean this is reminding me of rita all over...

[PURPLE 4EVER]

Brazosport ISD closed till Monday...

First of many....

[pete22600]

coop OK its a new day and can you let me know what the percentage of the chance it will turn north close to use is now in you mind

[Guest WeedBegone]

coop OK its a new day and can you let me know what the percentage of the chance it will turn north close to use is now in you mind

Coop stays up to Hoot with the OWLS so it will be a while before he soars with the EAGLES.

[Gasilla]

From what I'm understanding. The model represents where it will hit going it's current speed (8 mph). Speed up and it will go further South, slow down and it will go further North. I think they are beginning to get a better idea what it's going to do.

[WOSHIGHc/o2001]

Yeah Monday evening it was at 14 then Monday night at 13 now we are down to 8.  Yeah its slowing down.  Its not looking to good for the Golden Triangle.

[KFDM COOP]

We'll just have to keep watching, Thursday Morning we'll know where the turn will take place.

[bullets13]

We'll just have to keep watching, Thursday Morning we'll know where the turn will take place.

we're about to get screwed if this thing turns.  very little time to evacuate.

[WOSHIGHc/o2001]

So if its not until Wednesday, when do ya'll think we will hear any word on evacuations??