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*HURRICANE IKE AFTERMATH AND COMMENTS*


KFDM COOP

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The weather channel guy.  I was watching a couple of Houston stations at 6 and they were not really acting like it was any big deal. The only evacuations there are in low areas along the coast.

What? A major city that is 75 miles closer than we are and they aren't running for the hills?

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WTNT34 KNHC 102349

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  39A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL092008

700 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...IKE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.  A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST

TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON WESTWARD TO PORT

MANSFIELD TEXAS.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE

WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 700 MILES...1125

KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 345 MILES...555 KM...

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A TURN

BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY ON

THURSDAY...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL

AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE SCALE.  IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY

THURSDAY.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL

STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE

FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.  COASTAL STORM

SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL

STORM WARNING AREA.  ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED

ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE

WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12

INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO

20 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS

TERRAIN.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER

EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN

PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...24.7 N...86.3 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1000 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB/BERG

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ike is still aways out and models are not even close as i speak.ike has alot of  space to work with. the steering currents  are showing a loop as of yesterday. i was on the CC tv  network and thay say that lke likes them the most this was as 12 pm today.ike if it makes landfall where thay say  it would be almost 200 miles away from orange  TELL ME IF THIS IS TRUE

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It looks like that latest model you posted moved a bit south... They I think once the UKMET model and the European models are updated we will have a better feel for the storm for now. The model that shows hitting near Galveston seems to be way off compared to the rest of the models.

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