*HURRICANE IKE AFTERMATH AND COMMENTS*

[HoopInsider_Cooper]

Only 1 storm of the last 50 that were very similar in Ike track) have hit Texas. And that was in 1852 (Brownsville).

This sucks!!!! Come on Ike, don't make me call Michael Myers!!!!

[PURPLE 4EVER]

I hope none of you don't own a waterfront beach house around Matagorda Bay....

[Guest joey]

Do you really think it will hit Galveston?

Don't we have a high coming down here?

Besides NHC what other sites can I go to for 'tracking maps?' Thanks

[KFDM COOP]

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[Mc]

Going to be close!

NOOOO!!  Don't agree with me COOP.  My post was intended to be loaded with sarcasm. 

With more of a southward forecast, that means all those South TX/Houston hillbillies are going to cram our evacuation routes again. You know someone is going to hit the recurve button again as soon as their evacuation begins, as with Rita. >

[hockeyfan]

Besides NHC what other sites can I go to for 'tracking maps?' Thanks

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[BLUEDOVE3]

Hmm? So if Ike hits west of Galveston, and we're xxx amount of miles from Galveston, maybe we won't need the evacuation.

[HoopInsider_Cooper]

Too close 'Dove...Some are expecting a north (right) turn before landfall. Don't get caught with your...Well, you know.  ;D

[Quacker37]

do we have any idea when they will publicize any evacuation orders?

[HoopInsider_Cooper]

As of now 4pm Monday, no evacs for SETX have been ordered!

IF they are called, Wednesday special needs and Thursday mandatory (Jefferson County).

[BLUEDOVE3]

Hmm, so I guess I will cancel my hotel at 290 & 610 in Houston.

[hockeyfan]

Ike is now a Category 1 Hurricane

000

WTNT34 KNHC 082050

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER  31

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL092008

500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE HUGGING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS

FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS

DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS AND RAGGED

ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF

GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND

GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI

SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE

HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN

BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM

OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN

REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS

OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70

KM...SOUTHEAST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...340

KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...BUT A TURN

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT.  ON THIS

TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR

JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...MOVE OVER

WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF

MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS

OVER WATER.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF

OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175

MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN

COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF

THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP

CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES

OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES

POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH

FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2

TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...79.7 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

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[RonBurgundy68]

I still don't have a good feeling about this, at all... Haven't since it got close to Florida...

[Bobcatfan4life]

[RonBurgundy68]

How bad would it be for us if it took that track right there?

[KFDM COOP]

Little farther south!!!! 8)

[Bobcatfan4life]

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[dat_hook_em_fan]

> > > > > > >:(alot of rain

[Bobcatfan4life]

I'd rather a lot of rain than 100+ MPH winds.....

[ndnsrock44]

Coop. What do you think of the US Navy weather site? I heard they where usually right on the money with their forecasts and usually closer than most models. Here is their projection.

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[HoopInsider_Cooper]

Need to see that track near Corpus or south of there tomorrow.

[KFDM COOP]

It's all going to be a timing deal. If Trough moves fast through the Plains then it turns north. If Not then it should be to our south.

[skipper]

just keep pushing it south that will  chang alot of things dont you think

[RonBurgundy68]

It's all going to be a timing deal. If Trough moves fast through the Plains then it turns north. If Not then it should be to our south.

What are the percentages of the trough moving fast?

[KFDM COOP]

Decent!