3rd round predictions

[jayhawk]

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By Jake Shaw/TexasFootball.com

Division I Mid-Playoff Analysis

This Division -- like in Class 5A -- seems to be superior to the Division II ("small school") bracket. So you'd think Division I would boast the greatest games, the ones that people will talk about for years to come. So far, it hasn't happened -- at least not on a large scale.

Of the 16 games in Division I last week, only four were decided by 10 points or less. In 10 of the games, the winning team outscored the loser by at least 17 points. That certainly doesn't suggest any parity, but that's all about to change.

With the lesser competition out of the way, Division I is about to get interesting. Favorites remain -- Lake Travis, Longview, Wolfforth Frenship, and Friendswood for starters -- yet none of those teams are guaranteed wins this weekend. That's because of the 16 teams still going, 10 were ranked at season's end -- that's nearly half the top 25 still playing for one title.

It starts at the top with Lake Travis, which proved it doesn't need to sit on a big lead to win games. Lake Travis trailed by two TDs at one point before a 35-21 win against Cibolo Steele last week. The team many people pegged as Lake Travis' chief competition, Longview, faces a Dallas Carter team this weekend that's nearly identical in every way: fast, strong, and athletic. Coincidentally, both dropped down from 5A this season.

Then there's Highland Park, a state finalist last year that will need its offense to play its best against Waco Midway, which knocked off 9-1 teams in the first and second round, holding each to 10 points or less. And before you label Friendswood the outright Region III favorite, remember that Friendswood lost just once this year -- to Angleton, which is playing on the other half of this region.

With so many excellent teams all aiming at one trophy, all I can say is let the games begin.

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Division I Week 13 Predictions

Region I Semifinals

> Abilene Cooper (8-4) vs. Denton Guyer (10-2), 7:30 p.m. Saturday, Aledo

Any concern I had about Cooper's offense after its 16-10 loss to Frenship near the end of district play have been put to rest. Cooper has outscored its two playoff opponents 91-10. Attribute much of that to RB A'mon Pimpton, a senior who missed the Frenship game. Cooper is starting to look like the preseason top 10 team we labeled it in June, and though I expect Guyer to take this game down to the wire, Cooper's season should last at least one more week.

Padilla Poll says: Cooper by 5

Jerry's TXFB Ratings says: Cooper by 6

> Wolfforth Frenship (12-0) vs. Denton Ryan (9-3), 7 p.m. Friday, Lubbock's Lowrey Field

Something about this game makes me think Ryan can pull off the upset. It could be the fact that Frenship hasn't played a passing team like Ryan, whose QB, Scotty Young (3,995 yards, 60 TDs -- second-most in state history), is among the most prolific in the state, or it could be that Frenship has played down to the level of its opponents a few times this season (21-6 against Lubbock High; 20-17 against Plainview; 29-7 against Palo Duro in the first round). Either way, I think this game has the greatest chance for an upset of any in Division I. I'll still side with Frenship, partly because this is almost a home game.

Padilla Poll says: Frenship by 10

Jerry's TXFB Ratings says: Frenship by 8

Region II Semifinals

> Dallas Carter (12-0) vs. Longview (10-2), 2 p.m. Saturday, Corsicana

If this game were to be broadcast, it might be best viewed on an old black-and-white television set. Because you won't find any more throwback teams than Carter and Longview. Neither hides their agendas: run the football as much as possible, and stop the other team from doing the same. Obviously, whichever team comes closest to those goals will win this game. Like the experts, I side with Longview. It played in a tougher district and played a much more aggressive non-district schedule. Playing tough games early should help Longview win tough games late.

Padilla Poll says: Longview by 15

Jerry's TXFB Ratings says: Longview by 7

> Dallas Highland Park (11-1) vs. Hewitt Midway (11-1), 2 p.m. Friday, Corsicana

Rare is the time when Highland Park has 10-plus wins, is in the third round of the playoffs, yet is the prohibitive underdog in its matchup. Welcome to Waco Midway, the best team nobody is talking about. When the topic is broached, it's mostly because of RB John Hubert, a blue chip recruit. But this team has built an identity mostly by its defense, one that allowed 21 points or more just twice in 10 games; both were wins. That combination -- a great running game and lethal defense -- will spell an early end to Highland Park's season.

Padilla Poll says: Midway by 12

Jerry's TXFB Ratings says: Midway by 7

Region III Semifinals

> Magnolia (8-3) vs. Friendswood (9-1), 1 p.m. Saturday, Houston's Thorne Stadium

I'm trying to make sense of how Magnolia reached this point. The defense appears to be pretty good, but not quite dominating. This team lacks a standout player, the type of kid who'll win some kind of postseason reward. At least one thing is apparent: it won't quit. Magnolia trailed Nederland 27-14 entering the fourth quarter last week before rallying with 20 straight points and a 34-27 win. When Magnolia beat Brenham, 25-22, it did so by scoring the game's final 15 points. Magnolia also trailed early in its bi-district win before scoring the final 19 points of a 26-14 win. This is key, seeing that Friendswood is likely to score early and often. Magnolia might find itself in a hole once again, but few teams have shown more escapeability than Magnolia.

Padilla Poll says: Friendswood by 12

Jerry's TXFB Ratings says: Friendswood by 11

> Beaumont Central (8-3) vs. Angleton (9-3), 6 p.m. Saturday, Galena Park ISD Stadium

Beaumont Central will be watching the same thing Southeast Texas should be watching for the next two years: Quandre Diggs. The Angleton athlete -- arguably the best sophomore, at any position, in the state -- does it all. He leads the team with 1,321 rushing yards and 21 TDs (though Henry Josey isn't far behind with 921 and 15). Diggs' backup at QB, Chris Quiller, has completed only nine passes -- but two have gone to Diggs for 121 yards and 2 TDs. Diggs has also recorded takeaways on defense in both postseason games. So the less Central sees of Diggs, the better its chances of winning. But I think Diggs and Angleton will give Central sensory overload.

Padilla Poll says: Angleton by 11

Jerry's TXFB Ratings says: Angleton by 9

Region IV Semifinals

> Austin Lake Travis (12-0) vs. Alice (12-0), 8 p.m. Friday, Alamodome

While Alice has experienced one of its best season in school history (Alice hasn't won this many games since 1985), Lake Travis has one of the best teams in recent 4A memory. Lake Travis has won 26 straight games, a streak that began after a loss to Austin Westlake early in 2007. And though most of the wins have been lopsided, games such as last week's 35-21 comeback against Cibolo Steele shows Lake Travis can win a tight game. So if Alice is still within striking distance late in the second half -- something I think it can achieve -- look for Lake Travis to stay calm and pull out win No. 27 in a row.

Padilla Poll says: Lake Travis by 22

Jerry's TXFB Ratings says: Lake Travis by 19

> Killeen (8-4) vs. Gregory-Portland (9-3), noon Saturday, Alamodome

Don't expect Killeen to wince at being 12- and 11-point underdogs. Just this last week Killeen was in the same position, yet it did what few teams had done this season: shut down Alamo Heights' offense. Killeen will see a different sort of attack this week. Gregory-Portland will throw it -- the team has just more than 1,000 yards this season -- but the 3,611 rushing yards tells you all you need to know about G-P's offense. I was tempted by Killeen this week, but G-P's versatility (four players have rushed for at least 520 yards) swayed my vote.

Padilla Poll says: Gregory-Portland by 12

Jerry's TXFB Ratings says: Gregory-Portland by 11

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Division I Mid-Playoff Analysis

You know it when you see it, but it's hard to describe. And it's more than a sight -- it's a feeling, truth be told. I'm talking about the "state championship look," the attitude and swagger displayed by a team on a mission.

Spotting it on a team like Lake Travis (in Division I) doesn't take much talent. That team has gone wire-to-current-wire No. 1. But spotting it in teams that were either unranked or the low end of the top 25 takes a sharper eye. But I think I've seen it in several teams in Division II, teams nobody expected much from in the preseason.

There's Sulphur Springs, which shot on the radar (outside of Texas, too) when it beat Wichita Falls Rider on ESPN2 in non-district. Rockwall-Heath -- a second-year program with zero playoff trips before 2008 -- showed characteristics of the "state championship look" when it beat Highland Park in overtime at the end of the regular season. And I've seen it in Kerrville Tivy, who suffered from some midseason strife within its own locker-room but has since made that issue a thing of the past.

In recent weeks, Stephenville, Dayton, Beeville Jones and even Brenham have started to figure things out. I'm not sure they displayed this characteristic I speak of, but they're on the right track.

But a "look" is one thing ... having accomplished the feat is something wholly different. And that's why I favor Everman out of the entire field. Sure, its state title history occurred at the 3A level, but seeing Everman completely control Aledo last week -- and looking at how it has aced every test this season -- if I had to pick one 5A or 4A team to bet the house on at this moment in time, without hesitation, I would choose Everman.

I know I just motivated every team in Division II by saying that (especially Big Spring, which plays Everman this weekend), but I'm pretty sure Everman can handle it.

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Division II Week 13 Predictions

Region I Semifinals

> EP Parkland (9-3) vs. Stephenville (9-3), 1 p.m. Saturday, Odessa's Ratliff Stadium

And to think, a successful field-goal attempt by Dunbar in the first round would have spelled the end of Stephenville's run nearly as soon as it started. Stephenville dodged fate, won in multiple overtimes, and now Stephenville appears headed for the fourth round. I expect Parkland to present a challenge; it did beat 10-0 EP Austin when few people thought it could, but Stephenville seems a pretty safe pick.

Padilla Poll says: Stephenville by 20

Jerry's TXFB Ratings says: Stephenville by 20

> Big Spring (8-4) vs. Everman (12-0), 2 p.m. Friday, Abilene's Shotwell Stadium

Seeing that I raved about Everman in the overall Division II analysis, I think it's only fair to talk about Big Spring's chances. It's offense has ramped it up in the playoffs, scoring 49 in the first round and 47 in the second. Big Spring's offense starts with junior QB Matt Ritchey, a converted tight end who has sizeable pocket presence (6-4, 205) but who has enough speed to make him a rushing threat (838 yards), though RB Monte Anderson (962 yards, 9 TDs) is Big Springs' featured back. In my opinion, Ritchey and Anderson need career nights just to keep Big Spring in this game.

Padilla Poll says: Everman by 24

Jerry's TXFB Ratings says: Everman by 27

Region II Semifinals

> Denison (12-0) vs. Sulphur Springs (9-3), 8 p.m. Friday, Texas Stadium

I mentioned that "state championship look," and Ill admit some skepticism I had with Denison midway through the regular season. But Denison has put together a three-game stretch any team would be proud of: beating rival Sherman by 17, routing Royse City, 41-24, and overcoming an early 13-0 deficit to beat Dallas Lincoln 42-13. Now it faces the QB who has progressed more in two years than the average player. Nobody has debated the arm of Sulphur Springs' Tyrik Rollison, but his accuracy has greatly improved. Passing teams have given Denison bigger fits than running teams, so I don't think Denison wraps up a win until the final minutes of the fourth quarter.

Padilla Poll says: Denison by 1

Jerry's TXFB Ratings says: Denison by 4

> Rockwall-Heath (12-0) vs. Ennis (11-1), noon Friday, Texas Stadium

I read an online chat on the Dallas Morning News' site that, somewhat paraphrased, Ennis' three state titles won't give it any kind of advantage over Rockwall-Heath, a first-year playoff team (in just its third year of varsity play). While that's true, having head coach Sam Harrell on the sideline will give Ennis an edge, and that's with no disrespect to R-H coach Mickey Moss, one of the better coaches in the region. But Harrell has shown he can tailor gameplans to his opposition, so I expect the Ennis defense (typically an under-rated bunch) to concentrate on stopping RB Kendial Lawrence. The problem is nobody has stopped Lawrence, so I'm beginning to think that while Lawrence is great, he benefits from a dependable offensive line as well. It's hard to pick against a quality Harrell-led Ennis team, but I think Rockwall-Heath wins what could be the best game of the weekend in all of 4A.

Padilla Poll says: Ennis by 3

Jerry's TXFB Ratings says: Rockwall-Heath by 1

Region III Semifinals

> Dayton (10-1) vs. Rosenberg Terry (6-4), 7 p.m. Saturday, The Woodlands

I have seen Everman play, but I still have little reluctance naming Dayton the fastest team left in the Division II bracket. Perhaps that's because Dayton also has the fastest player, A.J. Dugat, whose speed translated into 5 TDs in last week's 42-14 win against Elgin. Dugat really came through in the second half, scoring three times to break open a 14-14 halftime tie. And don't leave out Cody Green, the Nebraska-bound QB who has thrown for nearly 2,500 yards and is 80 yards shy of 1,000 rushing. But for every ounce of speed Dayton has, it lacks a pound in size. and that works in the favor of Terry, a bigger team with a power running game. I think Dayton wins this one by a TD or more, but it will be close through all four quarters.

Padilla Poll says: Dayton by 8

Jerry's TXFB Ratings says: Dayton by 6

> Brenham (7-4) vs. El Campo (8-2), 7 p.m. Friday, Houston's Tully Stadium

Of all the games in Division II, this one has the greatest chance of an upset. I think that for two reasons: the tie that binds both El Campo losses together was inefficient offense. El Campo scored 14 points in both losses, the lowest outputs all season. Combine that with how well Brenham's defense played last weekend -- it held Crosby to -7 yards in the second half -- and I think Brenham has the edge.

Padilla Poll says: El Campo by 3

Jerry's TXFB Ratings says: El Campo by 5

Region IV Semifinals

> Kerrville Tivy (10-2) vs. Beeville (8-4), 7:30 p.m. Friday, San Antonio's Comalander Stadium

A starter since way back in 2005, when he was just a freshman, it might be setting in the head of QB Eric Soza that this is his final year leading Beeville. How else do you explain this team catching fire, scoring 140 points in its previous three games before last week's stunning last-second 30-28 win against Calallen. Soza rushed and passed for at least 130 yards in that win, but I think Beeville's chances depend more on its defense and how well it can stop Tivy. I think Soza and Co. will put up points, but I think Tivy breaks out for a big night (and a win) after scoring just 14 points last week.

Padilla Poll says: Tivy by 3

Jerry's TXFB Ratings says: Tivy by 6

> Pflugerville Hendrickson (9-3) vs. Port Lavaca Calhoun (9-1), 8 p.m. Saturday, Alamodome

Hendrickson got a primer on stopping the run last week in the 13-9 upset of Schertz Clemens, holding Clemens to 141 rushing yards. Now it needs a similar effort against Port Lavaca Calhoun, which scored an upset of its own against Edcouch-Elsa, 49-28. Calhoun was deadlocked in a 28-all tie until RB Xavier Archangel ripped off a 75-yard go-ahead touchdown. Calhoun quickly added two more scores to quickly transform a thriller into a lopsided win. Archangel was the catalyst, rushing for 200-plus yards. His big night shows that even though Calhoun rarely passes, the offense is multi-dimensional when you factor in FB Sterling Jones (852 yards) and QB James Ezzell (400-plus). Thus, despite Calhoun lacking an aerial attack, I don't see Hendrickson shutting down a power running game two weeks in a row.

Padilla Poll says: Calhoun by 5

Jerry's TXFB Ratings says: Calhoun by 8

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3A Picks

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[BMTSoulja1]

I like that.  No talk about Central or any of our playmakers, but talk about Angleton's backup QB.  No respect.  Well, we have to prove them wrong, yet again...

[JS]

I like that.  No talk about Central or any of our playmakers, but talk about Angleton's backup QB.  No respect.  Well, we have to prove them wrong, yet again...

Nothing is as sweet as laying the wood to someone who is supposed to beat you---Jags will do just that this week!