KFDM COOP Posted August 4, 2009 Report Posted August 4, 2009 Hurricane forecast scaled back By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS August 4, 2009 Posted: August 4, 2009, 2:00 PM CDT Colorado State University researcher William Gray has slightly downgraded his forecast for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Gray said Tuesday his team now expects 10 named storms, including four hurricanes, two of them major. In June, the team forecast 11 named storms, including five hurricanes, two of them major. Gray says the forecast was scaled back because El Nino conditions are expected to intensify. El Nino conditions suppress hurricane formation. The hurricane season runs from June 1 till Nov. 30. This is Gray's 26th year of forecasting hurricanes. His predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others, but many say long-range forecasts have little practical value beyond focusing public attention on the dangers.
Lazeek Posted August 4, 2009 Report Posted August 4, 2009 I don't see it happening. No storms in 2 months!!! Nothing. I look for the slowest year ever for the Gulf Coast and possibly all US landfalls!!!!! There is an expert weather opinion for you!!!!!!! :D
AggiesAreWe Posted August 4, 2009 Report Posted August 4, 2009 I hope! C'mon Kerry, you know you want more storms. You live for this.
Bucof2010 Posted August 4, 2009 Report Posted August 4, 2009 Is there any reliability (I guess that's the word 2 use?) in these predictions?
tvc184 Posted August 7, 2009 Report Posted August 7, 2009 Is there any reliability (I guess that's the word 2 use?) in these predictions? None whatsoever. They make preseason predictions and then a couple of times a year they revise them (If they are accurate, it makes you wonder why they need to be revised). Much like the spaghetti models for storms, they are mostly meaningless and all over the map. Even if you like one particular model over another, it will change so radically from day to day that to read anything into it more than 12 hours out is not worth the paper it is printed on. These are guesses (hopefully educated) at best by looking at previous trends from similar conditions. The only problem with those guesses (as your question to reliability) is that no one knows what will actually happen. Maybe when El Nino happened in the last 50 year along with a certain average daily temperature in the Atlantic, it produced an average number of storms. The average is true but it means no more than a guy battering .350 in the major leagues when he comes to the plate each time. Past averages, no matter how factual, mean nothing to this trip at the plate. He might get a hit, a home run, walk or hit into a double play. Well we are at the plate and past averages mean nothing. We might hit a home run (no storms), get a base hit (a couple of storms but no major and none hit the US), walk (a small storms hits) or strike out (get a direct hit from a major storm). And now the windup and the pitch..........
MMSLB Posted August 7, 2009 Report Posted August 7, 2009 Sounds to me like the job to have then!! Make a guess and if you are wrong its OK because no one figured you would be right anyway!!! ;D
tvc184 Posted August 7, 2009 Report Posted August 7, 2009 Sounds to me like the job to have then!! Make a guess and if you are wrong its OK because no one figured you would be right anyway!!! ;D That could be interesting. Roll a couple of sets of dice back in May and say that it looks like 15 named storms with 4 being majors. Come back in August and say that the revised data (meaning that there are no named storms the first two months of the season) now says that there will be 6 named storms and only 2 reaching major status. Then put your hand out for the paycheck. Yep, I could get into storm forecasting.
Guest baseball25 Posted August 8, 2009 Report Posted August 8, 2009 there is more about just guessing about hurricane season, they look at alot of models to see how the weather pattern is going to be, El nino is having a affect this yr, also there is alot of saharan dust this yr. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/movies/m8g10split/m8g10splitjava5.html
KFDM COOP Posted August 8, 2009 Author Report Posted August 8, 2009 Yup! We have Global Models that go out 3 weeks now that are pretty darn accurate with the upper air pattern.
MMSLB Posted August 8, 2009 Report Posted August 8, 2009 I realize forecasting is more than a guess, it was just a joke! I guess jokes lose their humor when it is typed, even if you use a smilely face. ;D
tvc184 Posted August 11, 2009 Report Posted August 11, 2009 Yup! We have Global Models that go out 3 weeks now that are pretty darn accurate with the upper air pattern. Even assuming they are accurate (and color me skeptical), three weeks is not much when asking about the guy predicting the number of storms for the season, even on his revisions. Assuming the three weeks are accurate for winds aloft, can they tell if a storm is actually going to form, if so how strong it will be and with any amount of accuracy, landfall.... say, within 150 miles, three weeks out?
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