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Chase for No.1 Pick is 2-Man Race

Allan Simpson
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In the baseball draft’s 45-year history, the first pick overall has never been a high-school righthander or a junior-college player.


That happenstance could change this year as the early favorites to go No.1 are College of Southern Nevada catcher Bryce Harper and Texas prep righthander Jameson Taillon.


Harper is a player who needs no introduction. He is the highly publicized teen prodigy who burst onto the mainstream athletic scene as a Las Vegas high-school sophomore last spring, when he hit .626-14-55 with 36 stolen bases and was the subject of a cover story in Sports Illustrated. He subsequently engineered a draft first by electing to enroll at nearby CSN in the fall, effectively making himself eligible for the 2010 draft a year ahead of schedule.


The 6-foot-7, 230-pound Taillon is merely the latest in a line of Texas fireballing righthanded pitchers from the draft era that includes the likes of Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens and Kerry Wood, all of whom became the most celebrated arms in their respective draft classes, but were never a No. 1 pick overall – or really ever came close.


The player given the best chance of challenging Harper and Taillon for the No.1 spot, and effectively preventing draft history from occurring, is Louisiana State righthander Anthony Ranaudo, who coincidentally represents the most popular demographic among previous No. 1 selections.


On 10 such occurrences – most recently in 2009, when the Washington Nationals had the first selection and took San Diego State’s Stephen Strasburg – the top pick has been a college righthander. A high-school shortstop and high-school outfielder have gone No.1 on seven previous occasions, and even a prep catcher holds that distinction four times. But never a high-school righthander. Or a juco player.


Harper or Taillon could end that drought, although the Nationals will have final say on the matter. By finishing with the worst record in the big leagues in each of the last two years, Washington has earned the dubious honor of picking first again – a feat that only the 2007-08 Tampa Bay Rays have experienced.


Unlike a year ago, when Strasburg was a slam-dunk choice to go No.1 for months leading up to the draft, the Nationals’ options are more varied this time, with as many as eight to 10 players still on their preferred list, most notably Harper and Taillon.


Industry sources confirmed that Washington has made the two players its priority, and will begin eliminating other candidates from its mix, beginning next week. Ranaudo remains somewhat of a wild card as he was clearly part of a Big Three at the start of the season, but has been shelved most of the season by elbow issues, throwing his draft status into question.


If pre-draft hype means anything, the early money seems to be on the 17-year-old Harper, much as it was a year ago with Strasburg.


Because of his sheer domination at San Diego State, Strasburg, 21, earned more acclaim than any No.1 pick in history, and yet might have gotten less fanfare than Harper has to date. An exceptional young talent, Harper’s raw tools may be the most advanced for a player his age than any U.S.-developed player in the draft era. Yet there’s no degree of certainty that the Nationals will settle on him, like they did with Strasburg.


For all practical purposes, Harper is being scouted this spring as if he was a high-school player – his age suggests so, if not his standing in school. And in that sense, recent draft history may weigh heavily in Harper’s favor for going No.1.


On the four previous occasions that a high-school catcher was the No.1 pick in the draft, the first three such selections – Steve Chilcott in 1966, Mike Ivie in 1970 and Danny Goodwin in 1971 – somewhat amazingly combined to catch just nine games in the big leagues (all by Ivie). Goodwin was even the No.1 pick twice, in 1971 (out of high school) and 1975 (out of Southern University) and still never went behind the plate even once.


The fourth catcher in that group has a little better track record. He is none other than Joe Mauer, merely the winner of three American League batting championships since being selected No.1 in 2001. The comparisons between Mauer and Harper are somewhat eerie.


Like the 6-foot-4, 215-pound Mauer, the 6-3, 215-pound Harper swings from the left side. By most accounts, Harper is more advanced in most facets of his game than Mauer was at the same stage of development, though Mauer was disadvantaged by growing up in a northern climate and dividing his time in high school between several sports. Obviously, Mauer has made enormous strides in fulfilling his potential since being drafted – that assertion underscored by his recent eight-year, $184 million contract.


There’s little question, though, that Harper has much more present power than Mauer did at a comparable stage of development, and his speed and arm strength are considered superior, too.


Even though Harper should technically be just a high-school junior this spring, his massive raw power has been well documented through the years. Scouts, however, openly said he would need to make some adjustments in his approach at the plate after he struggled mightily last summer against faster competition. But he has more than held his own as a freshman at Southern Nevada.


He not only leads the Coyotes with a .420 average, eight home runs and 27 RBIs (with wood, no less), but has more than held his own defensively, especially in his handling of a pitching staff that has a number of arms with high-quality stuff.


“He’s made great strides since he’s been here,” said a scout, who has tracked Harper’s every move. “He’s done a great job handling all the pressure. He’s improved in many areas of his game, the biggest improvement coming in what the pitcher gives him and not trying to do too much. His biggest adjustment has been seeing off-speed pitches in fastball counts. It happens most often on a 3-1 count and first base open.


“He has really improved his defense. In the past, Bryce had a tendency to flinch when the hitter would swing at a pitch, especially when the pitch was inside on the hitter. His receiving is much improved and his arm is getting shorter on his throwing motion.”


In particular, Harper has had to deal with the immense pressure that has been thrust on him by his unique situation. He has often played with upwards of 50 or 60 scouts at his games, some of whom were openly cynical over his decision and motivation to sidestep the traditional draft process, all in the hope of reaping millions this summer.


Some observers believed that a young and inexperienced Harper was put in a position to fail with his bold move, but a potentially-difficult situation has bas diffused through any number of factors – his opportunity to continue to live at home, the protective role that CSN coach and Harper family friend Tim Chambers has played, the presence on the CSN roster of his brother Bryan (a potential fifth- to eighth-rounder), and the deflection of attention that a number of other top prospects on the CSN roster has provided.


It has enabled Harper to focus on playing baseball, and he has thrived on the field in the sheltered environment.


As talented as Harper is, the Nationals are expected to keep their options open, particularly since Harper is being advised by agent Scott Boras, much like Strasburg a year ago.


There may be understandable reluctance on the part of the Nationals to go through another potential long and drawn out – and possibly contentious – negotiation as occurred with Strasburg, who inked a record bonus minutes before the mid-August signing deadline.


If Harper’s ties to Boras cause the Nationals to go another direction, that may eliminate Ranaudo, too, as he is also being advised by the hard-line agent. Ranaudo has missed much of the 2010 college season because of discomfort in his pitching elbow, stemming from what was diagnosed as a stress reaction on the bone.


Ranaudo has not pitched since the opening game of the season, though he’s expected to return this weekend when he’s scheduled to work three innings in a Southeastern Conference series against Tennessee. The Nationals, no doubt, will closely monitor every remaining start he makes this season, and may steer away from him if there are any indications of lingering elbow issues – especially with two other attractive options to consider.


The 6-foot-7 Ranaudo, an 11th-round pick out of a New Jersey high school in 2007, played an instrumental role in 2009 for Louisiana State as it won the College World Series. As the team’s Friday starter, he went 12-3, 3.04 with 159 strikeouts in 124 innings.


He positioned himself as a possible No.1 overall pick with a fastball that routinely reached the mid-90s and two dominating secondary pitches, plus a feel for pitching beyond his years, but he’s had a history of injuries in his college career. Ranaudo worked just 12 innings as a college freshman because of elbow tendinitis, before being sidelined again this spring with another elbow-related issue. He also didn’t pitch last summer, ostensibly because of his heavy workload as an LSU sophomore.


Ranaudo, however, is closest to the big leagues among the three players the Nationals will almost certainly give closest consideration to in the weeks leading up to the draft, and would conceivably be part of an imposing 1-2 tandem with Strasburg at the front of the Nationals’ rotation within a year or two. Strasburg will begin the 2010 season in the minor leagues, but is expected to be called up in June – or roughly about the time of this year’s draft, set for June 7-9.


If extenuating factors cause the Nationals to shy away from either Harper, or Ranaudo, the logical choice would almost certainly be Taillon, though the big righthander has all the credentials to be the No.1 selection on his own merit.


Taillon dominated as a junior at The Woodlands High in suburban Houston, going 8-1, 1.50 and striking out 95 in 56 innings. He then left little doubt that he was the premier arm in the 2010 prep class with a dominating performance at Perfect Game’s National Showcase last June. In October, he pitched Team USA’s junior-national team to a 6-1 win over Cuba in the gold-medal game of the COPABE 18-and-under championship in Venezuela, a qualifier for the 2010 world junior. In 7 2/3 innings, he allowed no runs, walked one and struck out a program-record 16.


He has done nothing since to jeopardize his preferred standing.


Even as he worked the first four innings of a wild Texas high-school game in mid-March that his team went on to lose, 14-11, to rival College Park High, Taillon’s stock has remained intact. He came back in his next outing and threw a no-hitter with 19 strikeouts, attacking hitters aggressively with a mid-90s fastball that had plus life, and a hammer curveball. His developing changeup give him three potential above-average pitches, all of which he commanded well.


“His fastball sat consistently between 94-98 mph in both games,” said a scout who saw the two Taillon outings, “but he pitched completely differently in the two games. Those were a lot of his friends in his first game, guys he grew up, and he thought he could just overpower them by just using his fastball and breaking ball, and throwing them only on the outer half of the plate. But those kids knew him and what to expect, and weren’t intimidated by him or his stuff. They just stood in there and went the other way with all his pitches, taking advantage of a short fence and dumping in a number of balls just over the infield. It didn’t help that there were some missteps in the field behind him, too.


“He was a different guy the next game. He obviously learned that he needed to use all of his pitches and work them aggressively to all parts of the plate.”


With the 2010 draft still more than two months away, it’s readily evident that Harper and Taillon are the Big Two in this year’s crop, with Ranaudo on the outside looking in.


That trio was ranked 1-2-3 in January, when PG Crosschecker unveiled a preliminary list of the top 500 prospects in this year’s draft, and they are still the top three as PG-X offers a revised version of its top 500. The only change is that Jameson has moved ahead of the injury-plagued Ranaudo. Harper stands firm at No.1.


Much as the selection of Harper or Taillon with the No.1 pick would break the draft’s long-standing aversion to junior-college players or prep righthanders, the choice of Harper would also go against the grain in this draft, which is heavily slanted towards pitching at the top – especially righthanded pitching.


Of the top 12 players for this year’s draft, as ranked by PG Crosschecker, nine are pitchers, including seven righthanders. Harper is the only obvious position player that will be drafted in the first 10, though Cal State Fullerton shortstop Christian Colon and Florida prep shortstop Manny Machado are attracting considerable attention and could squeeze into that mix, especially if a team is determined to draft a non-pitcher.


But in all probability, the 2010 draft will be remembered as the one that bucked history and saw a prep righthander or junior-college player drafted No.1 for the first time.


PART I: As part of PG Crosschecker’s comprehensive draft update, David Rawnsley took a close-up look at 10 players that have done the most to improve their draft status since the start of the 2010 season, and five players that might have slipped