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Orangfield vs. Silsbee

Jakk11

By Jakk11
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stevenash

stevenash

Posted
Posted
[quote name="SHSTIGER" post="955407" timestamp="1296093691"]
That response is perfectly knowledgeable, but given the history of games played between these two programs it is also perfectly logical to assume a blowout win by the Tigers. Nothing has occurred this season to disprove that logic, imho.
[/quote]

I don't have access to any statistics, but it sounds to me like you are saying that the average margin of victory is in the 30-40 point range when these two teams play each other.  Am I assuming correctly?  If that is, indeed, correct, I must further assume that the relatively close game recently played between the two should be considered, in your opinion, an aberration.  If you possess the data that confirms the 30-40 point margin to be the norm when these teams play each other, it would be wrong of me to suggest that predicting that type of outcome is illogical if we accept history as the guiding force for predicting the future.  In my simplistic mind, I had concluded that, since Silsbee had a relatively tough time at Hamshire and since HJ was down 18-3 in the first quarter at home against Orangefield, and shortly thereafter, Bridge City beat Orangefield and Silsbee was losing to HJ at home for the first three quarters of the game, it might possibly seem irresponsible to project large victories for anyone.  After digesting all of this, would you recommend that I predict a large margin of victory when HJ visits Hamshire this Friday?  Since I consider myself somewhat conversant with statistics (not necessarily ones related to basketball) I would caution you about one thing.  When looking at average scores, be prepared that a single large margin can distort, to an extent, the averages.  As an example, if ten games are all won by 10 points, its easy to conclude the average victory margin was ten points.  However if the next game is a 40 point blowout, the average margin of victory becomes about 30% higher in spite of it being just one game of 11.  In that case, you will hear many statisticians refer you to a theory that involves something called reversion to the mean.
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stevenash

stevenash

Posted
Posted
[quote name="SHSTIGER" post="955457" timestamp="1296097528"]
I've taken statistics so I'm fully aware of what you are speaking of. Before i dig through the books at what percentage of occurrence does a 30-40 pt win become illogical?
[/quote]

I did NOT take statistics so  I may be ill prepared to have this conversatin with you.(  However, I have made a living interpreting them for many many years)  I would guess that the percentage occurrence of which you speak would be a matter of personal interpretation.  The word illogical is, to some extent a personal judgement call, while statistics in themselves are absolute.  I don't think you need to do much digging.  If, as you previously stated, 30-40 point wins are a common and normal occurrence between the two aformentioned teams, I certainly could not claim that a prediction of same to be illogical and am prepared to withdraw that suggestion once I am assured that these margins of victory have been pretty regular.  There is nothing illogical about the outcome of a game but rather the prediction of the game is possibly illogical.  The stock market has advanced over 90% since its low in March of 2009.  Would you consider it logical to project another 90% advance in the ensuing 22 months?  If you do, it will be very easy for you to become many times more rich than you may already be.
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stevenash

stevenash

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[quote name="LAZEEK" post="955497" timestamp="1296099446"]
[quote author=AggiesAreWe link=topic=79180.msg955410#msg955410 date=1296094054]
Average margin of victory in the 1st 12 games played in 21-3A this season is 20.75.
[/quote]

That is considerably less than 30-40!!!! ;D ;D ;D
[/quote]

Considerably.
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FanintheStands

FanintheStands

Posted
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[quote name="stevenash" post="955512" timestamp="1296100244"]
[quote author=LAZEEK link=topic=79180.msg955497#msg955497 date=1296099446]
[quote author=AggiesAreWe link=topic=79180.msg955410#msg955410 date=1296094054]
Average margin of victory in the 1st 12 games played in 21-3A this season is 20.75.
[/quote]

That is considerably less than 30-40!!!! ;D ;D ;D
[/quote]

Considerably.
[/quote]Ahhh....... ([i]deciding to join in on the beating of dead horses[/i]), since the average margin of victory is 20.75, then percentages say that for every 1-10 point victory, there is a 30-40 point victory.  Hence, to project a 30-40 point victory is rather logical if one follows the bell curve for margins of victory.
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AggiesAreWe

AggiesAreWe

Posted
Posted
[quote name="LAZEEK" post="955497" timestamp="1296099446"]
[quote author=AggiesAreWe link=topic=79180.msg955410#msg955410 date=1296094054]
Average margin of victory in the 1st 12 games played in 21-3A this season is 20.75.
[/quote]

That is considerably less than 30-40!!!! ;D ;D ;D
[/quote]

Yes it is. I only put the fact out there for the other two to argue over. ;) ;D

FYI, of the 12 games, 5 were won by 9 or less, 3 were won by 30+.


Also, Silsbee's average margin of victory over Orangefield in the last 9 games(all district games) is 24.44.
Silsbee's average margin of victory over Hamshire-Fannett in last 9 games(district games) is 44.88.
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AggiesAreWe

AggiesAreWe

Posted
Posted
[quote name="SHSTIGER" post="955573" timestamp="1296107450"]
In the last nine between HF and Silsbee how many were 30+ pt wins?
[/quote]


I had to make some corrections on the HF/Silsbee margin numbers.

Silsbee has defeated HF the last 9 district games by an average of 44.88 points.

Here are the scores:

'07  91-60, 96-55
'08  99-48, 106-38
'09  106-28, 94-52
'10  88-40, 98-60
'11  64-57

To answer your question, 8 of the last 9 games Silsbee defeated HF by 30+.
So yes, I could see where folks would pick Silsbee by 30+ coming into last Friday's game against HF. ;)

As for Orangefield, winning by a margin of 24.44 over the last 9 games, it's not that far fetched to predict a 30 point win for Silsbee, but not likely. But, in this case, the Tigers did win by 40, 76-36. ;)
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AggiesAreWe

AggiesAreWe

Posted
Posted
Another note, Nash brought up a good point that one score could cause the stats to be a bit skewed.

So, throw out that last HF/Silsbee game, and Silsbee had been beating HF by a average margin of 49.62 over the last 8 district games.

If a team has been defeating another team by 50(49.62) points a game over the last 4 years, I think it's very logical to predict a 30+ win again for that team. ;)
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stevenash

stevenash

Posted
Posted
[quote name="SHSTIGER" post="955586" timestamp="1296111445"]
so against of it's not as likely, but hardly illogical? ;) ;) The average point differential of all district games has nothing to do with the average point differential of Silsbee's games!!
[/quote]

Based on the statistics presented, it would certainly NOT be illogical since the average margin of victory (before the last game) was about 49 points per game.  If you include the last game, the average margin is still just under 45 points per game.

Since said logical predictions were statistically based, could one conclude that logic dictates a predicted  victory margin of between 45 and 49 in the second round? 
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BLUEDOVE3

BLUEDOVE3

Posted
Posted
[quote name="stevenash" post="955618" timestamp="1296134124"]
[quote author=SHSTIGER link=topic=79180.msg955586#msg955586 date=1296111445]
so against of it's not as likely, but hardly illogical? ;) ;) The average point differential of all district games has nothing to do with the average point differential of Silsbee's games!!
[/quote]

Based on the statistics presented, it would certainly NOT be illogical since the average margin of victory (before the last game) was about 49 points per game.  If you include the last game, the average margin is still just under 45 points per game.

Since said logical predictions were statistically based, could one conclude that logic dictates a predicted  victory margin of between 45 and 49 in the second round? 
[/quote]Unless you take in that variable of over-confidence, too cocky, we got dis, and looking ahead to HF ;)
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