Nederland vs. Port Neches-Groves Game Thread/Nederland wins/Comments

[FanintheStands]

[quote name="stevenash" post="958466" timestamp="1296567878"]
[quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=79456.msg958462#msg958462 date=1296567146]
[quote author=stevenash link=topic=79456.msg958438#msg958438 date=1296543143]
I  will leave you to your own conclusions and same for me.  I just dont believe such things are as easily qunantified as you do.  And I would be willing to bet that Persohn and Prudhomme coming and going were not the result of any "odds considerations" by the coaching staff.  My point regarding the blackjack analogy was, in that situation,  both choices have low odds for a favorable return and you can't "stack" the odds to be in your favor.
[/quote]No, simply that Coach Sutherland was going with the odds that Persohn and Prudhomme were less likely to get an offensive foul and more likely to get a defensive foul.  Hence, they were in on offense and out on defense. 

If there was a 50-50 chance of any team winning in overtime (which no one has refuted) than there should be a relatively close 50-50 chance of any time winning with 90 seconds to go (that's  probably about 3 or 4 possessions each team).  I like those odds, even if its 60-40 since Nederland has the ball, WAY BETTER than [u][b]the 0% chance of PNG winning in regulation because they allowed Nederland to stall[/b][/u].
[/quote]

I wasnt there and have not seen the film  If I understand you correctly, you are saying now that PNG had no chance of winning.  A little earlier, I had understood you to say that they had a 25% of winning.  Sometimes the odds are not good either way.  If the Celtics are beating the Lakers by one with 10 seconds left in the game and the Lakers miss a shot which is rebounded by Ray Allen, what do the Lakers do to stack the  odds in their favor or even make them 50-50?
[/quote]Read the underlined point one more time.  PNG left themselves with [b][u]0% chance to win in regulation[/u][/b].  They had to force an overtime in order to even have a chance of winning.

The Celtic / Lakers scenario is entirely different.  The Lakers [u][b]are forced to only one option.  Foul[/b][/u].  The PNG coach was not relegated to a whisper and a prayer.  He simply went with the path that limited his chances to 25% overall.

[stevenash]

[quote name="FanintheStands" post="958494" timestamp="1296569584"]
[quote author=stevenash link=topic=79456.msg958466#msg958466 date=1296567878]
[quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=79456.msg958462#msg958462 date=1296567146]
[quote author=stevenash link=topic=79456.msg958438#msg958438 date=1296543143]
I  will leave you to your own conclusions and same for me.  I just dont believe such things are as easily qunantified as you do.  And I would be willing to bet that Persohn and Prudhomme coming and going were not the result of any "odds considerations" by the coaching staff.  My point regarding the blackjack analogy was, in that situation,  both choices have low odds for a favorable return and you can't "stack" the odds to be in your favor.
[/quote]No, simply that Coach Sutherland was going with the odds that Persohn and Prudhomme were less likely to get an offensive foul and more likely to get a defensive foul.  Hence, they were in on offense and out on defense.  

If there was a 50-50 chance of any team winning in overtime (which no one has refuted) than there should be a relatively close 50-50 chance of any time winning with 90 seconds to go (that's  probably about 3 or 4 possessions each team).  I like those odds, even if its 60-40 since Nederland has the ball, WAY BETTER than [u][b]the 0% chance of PNG winning in regulation because they allowed Nederland to stall[/b][/u].
[/quote]

I wasnt there and have not seen the film  If I understand you correctly, you are saying now that PNG had no chance of winning.  A little earlier, I had understood you to say that they had a 25% of winning.  Sometimes the odds are not good either way.  If the Celtics are beating the Lakers by one with 10 seconds left in the game and the Lakers miss a shot which is rebounded by Ray Allen, what do the Lakers do to stack the  odds in their favor or even make them 50-50?
[/quote]Read the underlined point one more time.  PNG left themselves with [b][u]0% chance to win in regulation[/u][/b].  They had to force an overtime in order to even have a chance of winning.

The Celtic / Lakers scenario is entirely different.  The Lakers [u][b]are forced to only one option.  Foul[/b][/u].  The PNG coach was not relegated to a whisper and a prayer.  He simply went with the path that limited his chances to 25% overall.
[/quote]

Maybe you should look at the post just above yours.  Also, please explain how, if PNG had gotten the rebound of the missed shot that they had ZERO percent chance to win game.  If your percentages are correct, that means that time expired as the missed shot was launched.  Was that the case?

[AggiesAreWe]

[quote name="speechless" post="958485" timestamp="1296569189"]
you are not thinking percentages in that situation you are thinking what gives my team the best chance to win/extend the game

png coach knew that things had gone their way just to be in a tie so if you told him before the game you have to get one stop to force OT with them will you take it?  he says yes

if they come out and play and Nederland scores which they would have because png plays zone and that is what kept them in the game then png would have had to go man and ned would have scored fairly easily due to the spread game so png says we are gonna sit in our zone and make you make a contested outside shot to win the game instead of creating a HIGHER % for a HIGHER % shot for you

see png forced nederland to take the lowest % shot possible to win the game it was a breakdown on the rebound that got them beat

png thought was lets keep this a one possession game with one minute to go instead of having 4 or 5 more possessions png knew that the fewer possession ned had the better off they were because png not good enough to go basket for basket with ned over the course of time

then you get to overtime and ned will likely come back and play regular ball and not hold it because there is 4 more minutes to play

when you are the lesser team and you know your personnel is not as good as the other team you dont ever take a chance to create extra possessions for that team in a tight game at the end
[/quote]


"And that's the bottom line because speechless said so!!!" ;D

Good post.

[FanintheStands]

[quote name="speechless" post="958485" timestamp="1296569189"]
you are not thinking percentages in that situation you are thinking what gives my team the best chance to win/extend the game[/quote]
This is an interesting comment, because "the best chance" is based off of percentages, whether one knows this or not.
[quote author=speechless link=topic=79456.msg958485#msg958485 date=1296569189]png coach knew that things had gone their way just to be in a tie so if you told him before the game you have to get one stop to force OT with them will you take it?  he says yes

if they come out and play and Nederland scores which they would have because png plays zone and that is what kept them in the game then png would have had to go man and ned would have scored fairly easily due to the spread game so png says we are gonna sit in our zone and make you make a contested outside shot to win the game instead of creating a HIGHER % for a HIGHER % shot for you

see png forced nederland to take the lowest % shot possible to win the game it was a breakdown on the rebound that got them beat

png thought was lets keep this a one possession game with one minute to go instead of having 4 or 5 more possessions png knew that the fewer possession ned had the better off they were because png not good enough to go basket for basket with ned over the course of time

then you get to overtime and ned will likely come back and play regular ball and not hold it because there is 4 more minutes to play

when you are the lesser team and you know your personnel is not as good as the other team you dont ever take a chance to create extra possessions for that team in a tight game at the end
[/quote]But how many more "extra possessions" are there in overtime then in 90 seconds.  By your own reasoning, the PNG coach is giving himself a 0% chance of winning in regulation and a "lesser chance" of winning in overtime because PNG's personnel are not as good as the other team.

I agree that more possesions gives  Nederland the advantage, but there are more possession in overtime than there are in 90 seconds, on average.

[FanintheStands]

[quote name="stevenash" post="958500" timestamp="1296569660"]
Maybe you should look at the post just above yours.  Also, please explain how, if PNG had gotten the rebound of the missed shot that they had ZERO percent chance to win game.  If your percentages are correct, that means that time expired as the missed shot was launched.  Was that the case?
[/quote]If PNG had gotten the missed shot, they would have been faced with making an 86' shot with 1 or 2 seconds to go.  OK, maybe get a time out and run a 1 second play to heave the ball up court and win. 

I'll give you a 5% chance of that, and this is being generous.

PNG now has a 30% chance of winning.  Woo-hoo!!!!!  ;)

And you may want to point out the "post just above mine".  There are numerous posts on this thread.

[stevenash]

[quote name="FanintheStands" post="958507" timestamp="1296570119"]
[quote author=stevenash link=topic=79456.msg958500#msg958500 date=1296569660]
Maybe you should look at the post just above yours.  Also, please explain how, if PNG had gotten the rebound of the missed shot that they had ZERO percent chance to win game.  If your percentages are correct, that means that time expired as the missed shot was launched.  Was that the case?
[/quote]If PNG had gotten the missed shot, they would have been faced with making an 86' shot with 1 or 2 seconds to go.  OK, maybe get a time out and run a 1 second play to heave the ball up court and win.  

I'll give you a 5% chance of that, and this is being generous.

PNG now has a 30% chance of winning.  Woo-hoo!!!!!  ;)

And you may want to point out the "post just above mine".  There are numerous posts on this thread.
[/quote]

The "post just above yours" is exactly, unequivocally what I meant.  It suggests the post made just before yours (sequentially speaking).  I don't have the capability of handicapping these occurrences (and I honestly dont think you have sufficient research/data to do so either) please tell me what the chances were that the PNG player could have rebounded the ball and been fouled during the rebound or just after the rebound.  What were the chances that the Ned player might have traveled when he attempted the game ending shot.

[Guest speechless]

mentality offensively goes back to normal in OT because there are 4 more minutes to play so coaches play regular ball instead of holding the ball

if there are 4 possessions in 1 minute then there are 16 possessions in 4 minutes which is quite a few more possessions for each team (hypothetically speaking)

however the last minute of a game is quite different than the 3 minutes leading up to it

decision making is different, shot selection is different and defensive and offensive strategy is different

png kept the game close with a tight zone defense and in OT all liklihood nederland would have gone back to playing regular offensive basketball and trying to attack the png zone and taking shots in normal time increments

think about it like this:  if png comes out and extends their defense (which is not their strength) then nederland has a much higher % chance of scoring so based on that if png comes out then they go from just having to stop nederland to possibly trying to stop nederland and then having to rush to score just to tie nederland again

whereas if they sit back then they only have to complete one task and that is force a low% shot for nederland which they did

[FanintheStands]

[quote name="stevenash" post="958510" timestamp="1296570417"]
The "post just above yours" is exactly, unequivocally what I meant.  It suggests the post made just before yours (sequentially speaking).  I don't have the capability of handicapping these occurrences (and I honestly dont think you have sufficient research/data to do so either) please tell me what the chances were that the PNG player could have rebounded the ball and been fouled during the rebound or just after the rebound.  What were the chances that the Ned player might have traveled when he attempted the game ending shot.
[/quote]OK, Steve, your going to nit-pick this until you I fold, eh.  The chances of a Nederland player traveling go up if you cover him for 90 seconds.  Better chance for PNG.  Get it?

I am going with rough odds, and I stated that, because when your dealing with future events, that's the only way you can do it.  And, believe it or not, every coach does this to some degree.

[Guest speechless]

and the png coach knew the odds of nederland scoring if he came out and extended his defense were triple the odds of them scoring if he sat back and waited

[stevenash]

[quote name="speechless" post="958520" timestamp="1296571074"]
and the png coach knew the odds of nederland scoring if he came out and extended his defense were triple the odds of them scoring if he sat back and waited
[/quote]

;D ;D ;D

[FanintheStands]

[quote name="speechless" post="958513" timestamp="1296570778"]
mentality offensively goes back to normal in OT because there are 4 more minutes to play so coaches play regular ball instead of holding the ball

if there are 4 possessions in 1 minute then there are 16 possessions in 4 minutes which is quite a few more possessions for each team (hypothetically speaking)

however the last minute of a game is quite different than the 3 minutes leading up to it

decision making is different, shot selection is different and defensive and offensive strategy is different

png kept the game close with a tight zone defense and in OT all liklihood nederland would have gone back to playing regular offensive basketball and trying to attack the png zone and taking shots in normal time increments

think about it like this:  if png comes out and extends their defense (which is not their strength) then nederland has a much higher % chance of scoring so based on that if png comes out then they go from just having to stop nederland to possibly trying to stop nederland and then having to rush to score just to tie nederland again

whereas if they sit back then they only have to complete one task and that is force a low% shot for nederland which they did
[/quote]I understand what you are saying, but I simply disagree.  Let me break it down.

Do we all agree that there is a 50-50 chance of either team winning if it goes into overtime?

OK,

Then if you limit Nederland to a 40% chance, then you've only got a 30% chance of winning (50% of the remaining 60% = 30%).

Limit Nederland to a 30% chance, then you've only got a 35% chance of winning (50% of the remaining 70= 35).

Limit Nederland to a 20% chance, then you've only got a 40% chance of winning (50% of the remaining 80 = 40).


But if you extend your zone, you force the opportunity to get the traveling call (that Nash is nit-picking over) or anything else.  Keep it to a 90 second game and I think PNG's chances are at the highest.  I don't like the Overtime option, because everyone on here recognizes that Nederland has the better team.

And nobody has added into the mix that Nederland also had the momentum coming back from a game-long deficit, if I remember correctly.

[FanintheStands]

[quote name="speechless" post="958520" timestamp="1296571074"]
and the png coach knew the odds of nederland scoring if he came out and extended his defense were triple the odds of them scoring if he sat back and waited
[/quote]and you have a wide open game again.  A lot can happen in 90 seconds.

But, recalling all the queries about where I got my percentages from, where do you get triple the odds?  Knowing these odds, it would seem that Nederland should play this style for 32 minutes against PNG.  ;)

[stevenash]

[quote name="FanintheStands" post="958529" timestamp="1296571480"]
[quote author=speechless link=topic=79456.msg958520#msg958520 date=1296571074]
and the png coach knew the odds of nederland scoring if he came out and extended his defense were triple the odds of them scoring if he sat back and waited
[/quote]and you have a wide open game again.  A lot can happen in 90 seconds.

But, recalling all the queries about where I got my percentages from, where do you get triple the odds?  Knowing these odds, it would seem that Nederland should play this style for 32 minutes against PNG.  ;)
[/quote]

It was me asking you about from whence your percentages came and not Speechless.  Since you did not provide an answer, why would you request same from someone else?(even though I happen to know that Speechless has a much larger statistical sample to draw from than most)  Personally, I also do not think that the odds of winning in overtime are distributed evenly.  If Silsbee goes into overtime with West Orange or Hamshire Fannett, (or for Vegas line makers sake if the Lakers go into overtime against the Wizards) I dont think the odds will be listed at 50-50.

[stevenash]

What are the odds that the coach of a team is better equipped to make a decision on how to deal with a last minute game situation as opposed to an observer who does not coach for a living?

[FanintheStands]

[quote name="stevenash" post="958533" timestamp="1296571789"]
It was me asking you about from whence your percentages came and not Speechless.  Since you did not provide an answer, why would you request same from someone else?(even though I happen to know that Speechless has a much larger statistical sample to draw from than most)  Personally, I also do not think that the odds of winning in overtime are distributed evenly.  If Silsbee goes into overtime with West Orange or Hamshire Fannett, (or for Vegas line makers sake if the Lakers go into overtime against the Wizards) I dont think the odds will be listed at 50-50.
[/quote]And I think I've given you all the odds to your questions.  Please feel free to reiterate, for its hard to keep track.

Regarding those overtime odds, yes, I felt I was being generous to PNG.  Every one on this site knows that Nederland is better, and should have a better chance than 50-50 in overtime.

Which only stands to reason that the PNG coach should have tried to avoid overtime.  Instead he was trying to play for overtime.


Regarding the stall, I would have probably allowed it if there were 20 seconds or so on the clock, but 90 seconds is simply too much time.  There is too much that can happen.

[FanintheStands]

[quote name="stevenash" post="958534" timestamp="1296571915"]
What are the odds that the coach of a team is better equipped to make a decision on how to deal with a last minute game situation as opposed to an observer who does not coach for a living?
[/quote]You know, there is only one way to know that answer.  If PNG is in the exact same situation, I would be willing to bet that he wouldn't make the same decision.

The odds are that a coach is better equipped, that's why he's in the position.  But the odds are that I disagree with his decision.  It ain't no big deal, its just not the decision that I would have made and I've stated why as clearly as possible. 

[stevenash]

[quote name="FanintheStands" post="958541" timestamp="1296572339"]
[quote author=stevenash link=topic=79456.msg958534#msg958534 date=1296571915]
What are the odds that the coach of a team is better equipped to make a decision on how to deal with a last minute game situation as opposed to an observer who does not coach for a living?
[/quote]You know, there is only one way to know that answer.  If PNG is in the exact same situation, I would be willing to bet that he wouldn't make the same decision.

The odds are that a coach is better equipped, that's why he's in the position.  But the odds are that I disagree with his decision.  It ain't no big deal, its just not the decision that I would have made and I've stated why as clearly as possible. 
[/quote]

Can't disagree with anything you have said here.  Well stated and I will stop nit picking.

[Razor]

Wow!  I just had a flashback to my college stat class!!!  can we talk about permutations now...lol?

[Guest speechless]

Nederland play what style for 32 minutes?  Hold the ball?  Why?  Nederland is the better team and if the 3 is falling it is not a game because a packed in zone offers lots of open 3 point opportunities and Nederland was not able to convert which is why they pulled it out to make png go man so they could use their superior athleticism to create an easier scoring opportunity.

It is impossible to put a basketball game into black and white statistics and very easy to say after the fact that you disagree with a decision

however, if png gets the defensive rebound goes to OT and wins then png coach is a genius, right?  would you be publicly disagreeing then? 

the png coach who knows his players a heck of a lot better than you do knew that if he came out and extended his defense that his teams chances of stopping nederland significantly decreased so it was really an easy decision

[NHS83LU87]

Can't believe anyone is still arguing about this game.......There are important games tonight.

[Michele]

I agree..... move on to the next opponent now.  Great Win Dogs!

GO BULLDOGS !!!!

[stevenash]

[quote name="NHS83LU87" post="958552" timestamp="1296573377"]
Can't believe anyone is still arguing about this game.......There are important games tonight.
[/quote]

What are the odds that this thread will still be going in a week? ::)

[AggiesAreWe]

I honestly think it's a good debate. The teams are irrelevant to some extent. The debate is more of the situation.

It's good talk.

[Honest Abe]

[quote name="AggiesAreWe" post="958558" timestamp="1296573663"]
I honestly think it's a good debate. The teams are irrelevant to some extent. The debate is more of the situation.

It's good talk.
[/quote]
I agree, it is a good debate, but why the sly remark? What makes U think these teams are irrelevant?  Thay will BOTH make the playoffs this year. How does that make them (or this game) irrelevant??

[AggiesAreWe]

[quote name="Honest Abe" post="958572" timestamp="1296574866"]
[quote author=AggiesAreWe link=topic=79456.msg958558#msg958558 date=1296573663]
I honestly think it's a good debate. The teams are irrelevant to some extent. The debate is more of the situation.

It's good talk.
[/quote]
I agree, it is a good debate, but why the sly remark? What makes U think these teams are irrelevant?  Thay will BOTH make the playoffs this year. How does that make them (or this game) irrelevant??
[/quote]


My remark was about the subject being discussed. It could have been any team involved. That was my point. As far as the debate is concerned, who the teams are is somewhat irrelevant. The debate about what the coach should have done could have been in any game.