2014 alignment predictions?

[Socrates]

Huffman and Splendora are playing some teams now that they are almost double the size of. Six of one, half a dozen of the other as far as fairness goes.

[trojansgo04]

Huffman and Splendora fans whining about having to play schools bigger than them? They are in the upper 900's and schools all over 3A and in their own district like Shepherd, Coldspring, and Tarkington are sitting with 400 or so less students than them.

[COOG8BRONCO]

[quote name="Socrates" post="1308602" timestamp="1351092981"]
Huffman and Splendora are playing some teams now that they are almost double the size of. Six of one, half a dozen of the other as far as fairness goes.
[/quote]Huffman wouldn't stand a chance in 19-4a, they moved them up one realignment and they went 5-15. I thought 950 was the cutoff giving Huffman 4a numbers and they haven't dropped below that so I really don't know why they went back down, maybe I was mistaken and it's 1050 though. Splendora might have a chance if they came up though, KP won one of those northern districts last year and won't make the playoffs in this one.

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

PAM stays 5A  :D

hello golden triangle schools  ;D

[Bigdog]

LOL. Nope they will probably be 6A.  Unless the numbers have dropped a bunch.

[hitman009]

[quote name="trojansgo04" post="1308616" timestamp="1351093884"]
Huffman and Splendora fans whining about having to play schools bigger than them? They are in the upper 900's and schools all over 3A and in their own district like Shepherd, Coldspring, and Tarkington are sitting with 400 or so less students than them.
[/quote] I am not from either school........ and Shepherd, coldspring and tarkington do not have 400 or less... that would put them in 2A(435 i think is the number)... all three of these teams have 534+ while Huffman and Splendora have 962-.  yes that is 400 students... I see the difference but 534(shepherd)-962(huffman) is not that big of a difference in 3A. Kirbyville went 3 rounds deep several times with 442 in 3A and to the state game twice in 2A with 332. but putting them in a district that has 1700-1800 kids is a big difference... maybe with UIL making 6 divisions would even thing up a bit.... Lets hope...  I get tired of seeing small schools get their tail whipped on friday nights...

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

[quote name="bigdog" post="1308700" timestamp="1351099841"]
LOL. Nope they will probably be 6A.  Unless the numbers have dropped a bunch.
[/quote]just got a shipment of mailboxes for [b]non-athletes[/b]. i see Sabine Pass enrollment increasing and PAM enrollment dropping.  ;)

Hello Golden Triangle teams  :D

[trojansgo04]

[quote name="hitman009" post="1308715" timestamp="1351101510"]
[quote author=trojansgo04 link=topic=105113.msg1308616#msg1308616 date=1351093884]
Huffman and Splendora fans whining about having to play schools bigger than them? They are in the upper 900's and schools all over 3A and in their own district like Shepherd, Coldspring, and Tarkington are sitting with 400 or so less students than them.
[/quote] I am not from either school........ and Shepherd, coldspring and tarkington do not have 400 or less... that would put them in 2A(435 i think is the number)... all three of these teams have 534+ while Huffman and Splendora have 962-.  yes that is 400 students... I see the difference but 534(shepherd)-962(huffman) is not that big of a difference in 3A. Kirbyville went 3 rounds deep several times with 442 in 3A and to the state game twice in 2A with 332. but putting them in a district that has 1700-1800 kids is a big difference... maybe with UIL making 6 divisions would even thing up a bit.... Lets hope...  I get tired of seeing small schools get their tail whipped on friday nights...
[/quote]
I'm not saying that smaller schools cant win, the Trojans just put it on the Falcons, but year in and year out with respect to reloading a team those numbers do make a difference. 970 kids (probably over 1000 now the way those areas are growing) vs. 450-500 kids can hardly be viewed as not making a difference.

[CAL2TEX]

[quote name="TradinUp BH" post="1308547" timestamp="1351089330"]
[quote author=CAL2TEX link=topic=105113.msg1308536#msg1308536 date=1351088501]
[quote author=TradinUp BH link=topic=105113.msg1308534#msg1308534 date=1351088375]
[quote author=NDNation link=topic=105113.msg1307935#msg1307935 date=1351006730]
Give us Dayton pllleeeaaase! We have 2 Black and Gold teams...we need more purple...were muddled over here ;D

And we wouldnt have to face them in the first round ever again.
[/quote]
Do you remember what happened last time Dayton was in that district? Lumberton was the only team that beat Dayton in that two year span. I remember it well and [b]20-4a was begging UIL to put Dayton back into 19-4a[/b]. Atleast now ya'll can throw one team into the slaughter house instead of 7 or 8 teams. ;D
[/quote]

::)
[/quote]
During that two year span Dayton went 13-1 in district and averaged 37 points a game and gave up an average of 5 points a game. Yep they were begging for Dayton to be moved out of 20-4a. In fact, during that time Nederland got beat 63-0 and 35-7. PNG got beat 40-7 and 33-2.  ;D
[/quote]

Not debating that Dayton owned 20-4A when in district.  Just makes more sense to have them in your district, suffer the loss and still have a chance to make the playoffs rather than be forced to play them in the first round and lose.

Thought you had first hand specific information about who was "begging the UIL" to move Dayton back to 19-4A.
Sorry - misread your post.

[sully]

Where do you think Silsbee will go?
Theyre already bordline 4A

[CAL2TEX]

[quote name="Mr. Buddy Garrity" post="1308694" timestamp="1351099379"]
PAM stays 5A  :D

hello golden triangle schools  ;D
[/quote]

YIKES!  :o

[DP70]

We can only pray that Deweyville drops to 1A.  8)

[Lions#80]

[quote name="sully" post="1308764" timestamp="1351104977"]
Where do you think Silsbee will go?
Theyre already bordline 4A
[/quote]maybe 20-4A

[Bigdog]

I think Dawson will be in the new 6A, but what about Friendswood??

-Also Silsbee wasn't that close to the 4A cutoff,  I don't think.

[PN-G bamatex]

If I read it correctly, the numbers won't change a bit (although I think they should). So if the districts change at all, what are now 4A schools with enrollments that stay the same between now and then will only go into other districts with other schools that are currently 4A.

[Guest ECBucFan]

[quote name="DP8036" post="1308807" timestamp="1351107281"]
We can only pray that Deweyville drops to 1A.  8)
[/quote]

Me too. I hope DV makes that move and soon! When it happens, y'all are gonna run the table!  8)

[DP70]

With the groups of kids that are coming up, if we stay in D2 then we will be tough. But if we drop down then I think we'll be as dominant as San Augustine.

[DHS Grandad]

I wouldn't count on DV dropping to 1A unless the UIL really changes the cutoff numbers.

[DP70]

We were only 1 person short last realignment. I almost wanna guarantee that we'll drop but that'll jinx it lol

[COOG8BRONCO]

[quote name="trojansgo04" post="1308728" timestamp="1351102468"]
[quote author=hitman009 link=topic=105113.msg1308715#msg1308715 date=1351101510]
[quote author=trojansgo04 link=topic=105113.msg1308616#msg1308616 date=1351093884]
Huffman and Splendora fans whining about having to play schools bigger than them? They are in the upper 900's and schools all over 3A and in their own district like Shepherd, Coldspring, and Tarkington are sitting with 400 or so less students than them.
[/quote] I am not from either school........ and Shepherd, coldspring and tarkington do not have 400 or less... that would put them in 2A(435 i think is the number)... all three of these teams have 534+ while Huffman and Splendora have 962-.  yes that is 400 students... I see the difference but 534(shepherd)-962(huffman) is not that big of a difference in 3A. Kirbyville went 3 rounds deep several times with 442 in 3A and to the state game twice in 2A with 332. but putting them in a district that has 1700-1800 kids is a big difference... maybe with UIL making 6 divisions would even thing up a bit.... Lets hope...  I get tired of seeing small schools get their tail whipped on friday nights...
[/quote]
I'm not saying that smaller schools cant win, the Trojans just put it on the Falcons, but year in and year out with respect to reloading a team those numbers do make a difference. 970 kids (probably over 1000 now the way those areas are growing) vs. 450-500 kids can hardly be viewed as not making a difference.
[/quote]It does make a lot of difference in 3a, but not as much as 4 or 5a. A school with 500 kids probably makes a football team from about a 50 kid pool (10%). You almost double the enrollment there and get another 45 kids to choose from. If 3 of your elite players get hurt at the 950 school you have 45 more to choose from than the 500 school. Now take a 4a with 1150 kids against a 4a with 2050 kids. The 1150 school starts with a pool of 115 kids, the 2050 school starts with 205. The nearly 100 extra kid advantage the large 4a possess is a bigger advantage than the large 3a due to the fact the 4a has greater percentage chances of finding high level/elite replacement talent as to not hurt the team. 5a is ridiculous, 2250 school with a 225 player pool against a 4500 school with a 450 pool. Those schools literally have double the talent other 5a schools have and injuries don't really effect them that much. I don't think it's a coincedence NS, Allen, Skyline, Westfield, and other schools with those 4000+ enrollments are almost always conteders. 

[Guest ECBucFan]

The larger classification of the school, the less impact of size disparity within the class. Imagine this, you add one extreme athlete to a 1A team. Likely, that 1A team is instantly transformed from a 5-5 team to maybe a 9-1 team. Add that same guy to a 5A team and he certainly helps, but would not push them from 5-5 to 9-1. In fact he probably just blends in well. Most all 5A have plenty of talent and depth, so increased enrollment helps some but not tremendously. Some 1A and 2A teams struggle just to put 11 good players on the field at one time, and they certainly lack depth. Any increase in in enrollment in the smaller ranks "counts" more.       

[trojansgo04]

[quote name="ECBucFan" post="1309242" timestamp="1351175784"]
The larger classification of the school, the less impact of size disparity within the class. Imagine this, you add one extreme athlete to a 1A team. Likely, that 1A team is instantly transformed from a 5-5 team to maybe a 9-1 team. Add that same guy to a 5A team and he certainly helps, but would not push them from 5-5 to 9-1. In fact he probably just blends in well. Most all 5A have plenty of talent and depth, so increased enrollment helps some but not tremendously. Some 1A and 2A teams struggle just to put 11 good players on the field at one time, and they certainly lack depth. Any increase in in enrollment in the smaller ranks "counts" more.     
[/quote]
Exactly. If a large 950+ 3A school is playing a smaller 500 student 3A, and the large team loses one of their players they likely have some decent talent to replace it with, however, if that smaller team loses a talented player they likely do not have the option of replacing them with a quality player. Whereas at the 4A level large or small, either team likely has some quality players on the sideline.

[Guest ECBucFan]

As size increases, its more about coaching. Nederland has lots of talent now, but during the last 10-15 years they won with "good enough" 4A talent and outstanding coaching. 

[COOG8BRONCO]

[quote name="ECBucFan" post="1309242" timestamp="1351175784"]
The larger classification of the school, the less impact of size disparity within the class. Imagine this, you add one extreme athlete to a 1A team. Likely, that 1A team is instantly transformed from a 5-5 team to maybe a 9-1 team. Add that same guy to a 5A team and he certainly helps, but would not push them from 5-5 to 9-1. In fact he probably just blends in well. Most all 5A have plenty of talent and depth, so increased enrollment helps some but not tremendously. Some 1A and 2A teams struggle just to put 11 good players on the field at one time, and they certainly lack depth. Any increase in in enrollment in the smaller ranks "counts" more.     
[/quote]I see where you're trying to go with it and it's a valid point, but if Glenn Roberts played for Hardin they wouldn't be 6-1 right now. There's one of him in that entire 2a district. Does a single player make a bigger difference in the smaller classifications, of course but how likely are you to find him out of 25 other kids to choose from? Either way you have a point but I was talking about it more on the front end and the initial player pools. A school with 400 to choose from vs a school 215 to choose from has a bigger advantage over a school with 90 to choose from vs 50.

[ChampionEagles]

At the 2A level if a school continually fields competitive teams, that has to reflect as outstanding coaching. Adhering to a proven system, both during the season and the off season, I think most definetly proves the coaching staff is doing a superb job. People continually say that Newton has all this home grown talent and do not see what is really the influencing factor involved. The kids at Newton are exposed to a work ethic system of improvement at whatever skill level they have. They lift weights, run, and are continually challenged to be better from the time they are in the system in the 7th grade until they graduate. Not only challenged but expected to perform at a high level. They play to a higher level year in and year out because of this. Newton can not be compared to WOS on the field, but as to making every kid in the program better athletically they are on par. These two programs should be studied in depth by others wanting to improve on a yearly basis. Not copy in x's and o's but how they get their athletes to produce year in and year out IMO.