tvc184

An incumbent probably starts out with about a 90% chance of winning. For that reason Phelan is extremely likely to win, but apparently he is feeling heat. I’ve never seen such a local political race where I get texts and nicely printed flyers every day. The odds of him losing are likely in the single digits.

1. Haley will almost certainly drop out of the race after Super Tuesday. Her statement that she’s in it for the long-haul has to be made and everyone in her position says the same thing. What else are they going to say, if you don’t vote for me this week I’m quitting? Such an admission by anyone might as well have throw in the towel at that moment. 2. No one has to justify their vote, why they vote or if they don’t vote at all. However… the next president will be a Democrat or a Republican. The Constitution guarantees it by about 99.9%. In that respect, a no vote, or a vote for someone in a third-party other than Democrat or Republican, is ridiculous vote. You could skip voting, write yourself in, you could put it in Mickey Mouse‘s name or vote for one of the dozen or more “third” parties. On a sidenote, I always find it interesting that they call a third party any one of many. “Yeah, I am going for that third party!”. Why not call it an alternate or protest party which is what it is. But, no matter you’re justification to vote for whoever or skip voting altogether, nothing will change the fact that either a Republican or a democrat will be the next president. Voting for a president when one is guaranteed to be in office, is not like not shopping at Walmart or not buying a food that you don’t like. There are most things in our life that we can simply choose to avoid. Having a president is not an option unless you move out of the country. 3. Anyone that thinks conservatives or Republicans are not going to vote for Trump at a 40% rate is in La La Land. TDS would be running strong. In 2016 he got 63 million votes and after all of his antics, increase to 74 million in 2020. I don’t know if he will increase that or if he will lose a percentage, but if he does, I don’t expect it to be much. I think Biden has shown that the 2020 election was a big mistake in the minds of many people.

CB said it but it didn’t say eliminating taxes. It said doing away with property taxes so a small percentage of people are directly affected. Like other discussions points, it could take the form of anything except income taxes. I am assuming that property owners would probably love it and others, who are paying less direct taxes, would probably hate it.

With Port Arthur being sideways….

I never mentioned voting. I only wanted to point out that these were nothing but discussion topics. These are not proposals they are not bills that have been presented, and they are not amendments to the constitution. We could have discussed any of these issues without an election because they are only that, a discussion. I voted today and did complete a vote on all 13 issues. I do find it rather ludicrous that the Texas GOP has to ask whether they should enact laws such as relieving property tax, securing the border, etc.

But….. I’m sure that there are opinions from some legislatures on which way such a proposal should go. I follow the legislature fairly closely and they have their own website. It is detailed and has very good information as to each step in the process of every bill filed. You can read word for word what was submitted, amended and/or passed. Some bills for example, go through several amendments, and then die in committee. For example, a representative or senator as a talking point might say, in the next session, if I am elected, I will file a bill that says blah blah blah. So there is definitely a possibility that what you heard may have been uttered by someone at some point. That is far from a bill being filed or if so, even getting out of committee, much less being voted into law. I think maybe between 4000 bills are filed each legislative session. They have 140 days to weed through the bills, debate them, amend them to try and get some of them passed into actual law.

It is neither right nor wrong because these are not laws. They are not suggested laws. They are not constitutional amendments. They are talking points, like, what do you want us to discuss in the next legislative session? The next legislature takes office in January 2025.

They were out when Big Girl tried to buy them online and like me, wants to see if someone wants to sell them at less than eBay prices.

I will vote for Covey but I really don’t think that Phelan, as an incumbent and with name recognition, is in any trouble. I would venture that in a normal year an incumbent being challenged in a primary would win by about 85%-15%. With this race and Phelan getting so much attention and much of it negative, it might go to Phelan 60/40 or maybe a little less than 40 for Covey. I would love to be wrong but…..

I couldn’t get to them in time. They are too high on ebay right now. $400 is okay but $4,999 is a stretch. Maybe the next batch…

They are not important because they are meaningless. They are discussion points… as if the Republican legislators don’t know what is popular. 2 and 6 are almost certainly unconstitutional. 8 is likely unconstitutional in parts. 13 is probably unconstitutional

Lipstick on a pig? It is a ludicrous spending of public money as window dressing that will be taken out soon by a drunk driver.

That brings up two points in my mind. 1. It kind of cancels the, “we can’t disregard a minority” if it’s obvious by the internal polls that Biden will poll better or for that matter, anyone else such as Gavin Newsom. 2. I think her demographics and gaining votes based on that cancels #1. Let’s face it, if it’s two old white guys running, many people will not be inspired and will stay home. If it is any kind of minority whether by race, sex, age, ethnicity, sexual preference status and so on, it can guarantee that a percentage of people who might not really care about voting will all of a sudden be galvanized to vote. It doesn’t have to be much to change the election. Remember that it doesn’t matter who is more popular, it matters who shows up on Election Day.

If they want Harris, why not Biden back out and give his delegates to her? At least she could potentially make up some ground from the negative ratings for her and Biden based on demographics. Let’s face it, Biden isn’t going to pull any extra votes based on sex, race, age, state, etc. If they think Harris is the future, I think she may have a better chance than Biden. She can pull some numbers from sex, race and age just from people who like identity politics and to check off boxes. This is not a prediction but simply wondering if she might do better than him if he gets any worse. Harris standing alone might get her the glass ceiling female/minority quicker than tagging onto his cocktails. What do you think? I and plenty of others said the exact same thing about him resigning right after the election, in the last election.

Certainly they could throw it wide open and not deal with “the issue”, don’t get involve at all and let the best man (or woman) win in a completely open and fair selection. However…. Do you believe that the DNC insiders are not going to be heavily involved in picking the candidate? Ponder this, who gets all of the delegates that Biden has already compiled? Does Biden simply release them? What about the super delegates? And all of this to get around Harris so as not to seem prejudiced…. although I have no clue why they can’t simply point out that her approval is as bad as his, she got beaten so badly in 2020 that she was the first declared candidate to drop out of the Democrat primary. You could be correct but I don’t think that the DNC is going to stand by and simply let history take its course in a completely fair remainder of the primary. Unbind all of the delegates to date and then get out of the way. Maybe you have more faith in the DNC and a sudden change of fairness.

I spoke about that in the other threads. If they are going to make a change, it has to be pretty quick now. Like LBJ in ‘68, Biden will have to suspend his campaign since he is already running and gotten most of the primary/caucus votes. Like LBJ, Biden’s approval rating is horrendous. Unlike LBJ who I believe shocked the electorate, Biden bowing out will not.

I have seen that spoken about briefly by some of the talking heads on the Dems side months ago but I don’t think it will be much of a deal. It would almost certainly lose the Dems some votes, which they can’t afford. It won’t likely happen, but what would be even funnier (and stupid) would be to pick somebody like Newsom from California and then pick Harris again for VP like as a consolation. OHHHH!!!! She good enough to be in line to be the President in an emergency … twice… but she is not good enough to get the nomination? Can you imagine the outrage? 🤣🤣🤣 They would be better dropping her all together, and just running with it. But….. It sure seems like a good bit of grumbling from inside the Democrat’s own camp which is practically unheard of. Maybe they will let Biden keep going but I have a hard time thinking they aren’t going to plug the holes in the ship and try to save it and I don’t think that Harris will be the savior.

I think the end is near for Biden. He has been pandered and pampered long enough for those in charge of the Democratic Party and served his usefulness. I think it is getting to the point where the leadership doesn’t want this to continue much longer. I am not thinking about any resignation by Biden (and putting Word Salad in charge) but rather giving up his delegates to another candidate for the election. It has certainly been mentioned before in these forums but I think the time is growing short. I think the longer Biden stays in, the better Trump looks. Naming a replacement soon might change the game but if they wait until too deep of a hole has been dug, it might be too late. That’s why I think they may be pulling the plug on him soon. I think the grumbling by the Democratic operatives will be too strong in the next few weeks.

Are you basing your thread on changed stances by Republicans on the opinions of paid political pundits who may disagree with each other on a narro topic? I thought there was some major policy shift that I missed.

Any details on the “swift change” and by whom?

I think that she has to hang in until the South Carolina primary on February 24th.

Yep. Supposed kind a godchild or some such was killed. If my memory is holding up, France would not give permission for overflight, they had to go a lot farther and take a lot longer to complete the mission, with more refuelings.

I don’t think it was legal then or now to draft a 17 year old, who is still a child under federal law.

That’s always the question.

Just a good ol’ boy looking out for his people. Bombing 747s in mid-flight is all part of providing free gasoline to the masses…..